Australia’s housing market in September 2025 is showing resilience, with Victoria – particularly Melbourne – slowly regaining momentum after a subdued period.
According to the ABS, the total value of residential dwellings has climbed to $11.56 trillion, with the national average home price above $1 million. While Sydney remains the costliest city at a median value of $1.224 million, Melbourne continues its gradual climb, recording a 0.3% increase in August to around $809,000.
Experts say Melbourne’s market is attractive for buyers who find Sydney unaffordable. Compared to Brisbane’s rapid 1.2% growth and Perth’s strong demand, Melbourne offers a balance of affordability, scale, and future opportunities. Population inflows, new housing projects in suburbs like Wollert, Beveridge, and Craigieburn, and major transport upgrades are expected to provide a steady lift to the Victorian market.
Regional Victoria is also gaining traction. Cities like Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo are attracting young families and first-home buyers, drawn by lower entry costs and improved connectivity to Melbourne.
For first-home buyers, Melbourne offers both challenges and opportunities. While rising values make deposit saving tough, government incentives and regional First Home Owner Grants are keeping the dream alive. Analysts predict younger buyers will increasingly look toward Melbourne’s outer growth corridors and regional centres, where land packages remain more affordable.
Looking forward, the national market is expected to show broad-based growth, with Brisbane and Perth positioned as future hotspots. But for long-term stability and diversity, Melbourne and Victoria remain central players in Australia’s housing story.
